This House would build the Hyperloop

Public transportation has not been getting much faster over the last few decades. The fastest method of transport, supersonic jets in the form of Concorde ceased operation in October 2003.[1] Even if at some point a new generation of supersonic planes are built these will not be ideal for travelling between cities that are comparatively close together. The time spent getting the plane up and down from cruising altitude means they would take longer over these short distances than a slower option at ground level. The Hyperloop at more than 700mph will be twice as fast as high speed rail. To take the different options on the San Francisco-Los Angeles route cars take 5hours 30minutes, the proposed high speed train would take 2hours 38minutes, by plane takes 1hour 15minutes whereas the Hyperloop would only take 35minutes.[2]

[1] ‘End of an era for Concorde’, BBC News, 24 October 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3211053.stm

[2] Musk, Elon, ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, SpaceX, 12 August 2013, http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf p.8, 56

People are not always interested in the fastest possible option; they often want comfort as well. Trains allow riders to work or relax as well as travel the Hyperloop has little space for passengers to move around in. This means that passengers may actually be more productive on a train on which they can move around and work as they travel than they would be in a confined space on the Hyperloop.

The Hyperloop would be cheap to build. The pods themselves would only cost $1.35million each, the pressurised tube just $650million (or double if wanting vehicles), with only two stations their cost would only be $250million. The biggest cost would be the construction of the pylons carrying the tube which is estimated at $2.55 or $3.15billion. There is an estimated total cost of $4.06billion for the passenger only version or $5.31billion for the vehicle version. [1] This should be compared to the current cost for California’s high speed rail project which is estimated to be $68billion while covering much the same ground.[2]

[1] Musk, Elon, ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, SpaceX, 12 August 2013, http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf pp.23, 27, 32, 28, 32

[2] Slosson, Mary, ‘California moves forward on $68 billion high-speed rail project’, Reuters, 18 July 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/us-usa-california-rail-idUSBRE86H1K820120718

Less than $6billion seems to be suspiciously low. Some land would undoubtedly need to be purchased if only to allow for less tight corners. Added to this there would still be delays due to the need for permits for noise, light and vibration which will mean rising costs.[1] A study of 250 major transport infrastructure projects has found that 90% of come in over budget and this escalation is 45% on rail projects.[2] And it should be remembered that this is dealing with systems were we know the costs not something that is completely new. Additionally there would be costs associated with the closures of the main road routes between Los Angeles and San Francisco – though these might be moved to the people of California the cost would still be there.

[1] Fernholz, Tim, ‘Does the Hyperloop even make sense for California?’, Quartz, 12 August 2013, http://qz.com/114463/does-the-hyperloop-even-make-sense-for-california/

[2] Flyvbjerg, Bent et al., ‘How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?’, Transport Reviews, vol.23, no.1, 2003, pp.71-88, http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/COSTFREQ4.pdf, p.85

The Hyperloop would be the cheapest mode of intercity transport possible. “Transporting 7.4million people each way and amortizing the cost of $6 billion over 20 years gives a ticket price of $20 for a one-way trip for the passenger version of Hyperloop.”[1] There are very few additional costs. Usually the main cost for transportation beyond the infrastructure is the energy but the Hyperloop produces more energy than it uses so would make a profit here. There would be additional maintenance costs and some minor staff costs but this is unlikely to add too much to the ticket price. The Hyperloop would therefore be very price competitive compared to the $100 and up for flights.

[1] Musk, Elon, ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, SpaceX, 12 August 2013, http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf p.56

While it seems reasonable that the cost will be low it is questionable that it will be quite as low as suggested. If the cost of construction rises – as it inevitably does – then because this is the basis for the pricing calculation the prices will surely go up. Musk is also forgetting all the extra costs that would be incurred such as the cost of airline style security measures.[1]

[1] Fernholz, Tim, ‘Does the Hyperloop even make sense for California?’, Quartz, 12 August 2013, http://qz.com/114463/does-the-hyperloop-even-make-sense-for-california/

Public transportation has not been getting much faster over the last few decades. The fastest method of transport, supersonic jets in the form of Concorde ceased operation in October 2003.[1] Even if at some point a new generation of supersonic planes are built these will not be ideal for travelling between cities that are comparatively close together. The time spent getting the plane up and down from cruising altitude means they would take longer over these short distances than a slower option at ground level. The Hyperloop at more than 700mph will be twice as fast as high speed rail. To take the different options on the San Francisco-Los Angeles route cars take 5hours 30minutes, the proposed high speed train would take 2hours 38minutes, by plane takes 1hour 15minutes whereas the Hyperloop would only take 35minutes.[2]

[1] ‘End of an era for Concorde’, BBC News, 24 October 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3211053.stm

[2] Musk, Elon, ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, SpaceX, 12 August 2013, http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf p.8, 56

People are not always interested in the fastest possible option; they often want comfort as well. Trains allow riders to work or relax as well as travel the Hyperloop has little space for passengers to move around in. This means that passengers may actually be more productive on a train on which they can move around and work as they travel than they would be in a confined space on the Hyperloop.

The Hyperloop would be cheap to build. The pods themselves would only cost $1.35million each, the pressurised tube just $650million (or double if wanting vehicles), with only two stations their cost would only be $250million. The biggest cost would be the construction of the pylons carrying the tube which is estimated at $2.55 or $3.15billion. There is an estimated total cost of $4.06billion for the passenger only version or $5.31billion for the vehicle version. [1] This should be compared to the current cost for California’s high speed rail project which is estimated to be $68billion while covering much the same ground.[2]

[1] Musk, Elon, ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, SpaceX, 12 August 2013, http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf pp.23, 27, 32, 28, 32

[2] Slosson, Mary, ‘California moves forward on $68 billion high-speed rail project’, Reuters, 18 July 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/us-usa-california-rail-idUSBRE86H1K820120718

Less than $6billion seems to be suspiciously low. Some land would undoubtedly need to be purchased if only to allow for less tight corners. Added to this there would still be delays due to the need for permits for noise, light and vibration which will mean rising costs.[1] A study of 250 major transport infrastructure projects has found that 90% of come in over budget and this escalation is 45% on rail projects.[2] And it should be remembered that this is dealing with systems were we know the costs not something that is completely new. Additionally there would be costs associated with the closures of the main road routes between Los Angeles and San Francisco – though these might be moved to the people of California the cost would still be there.

[1] Fernholz, Tim, ‘Does the Hyperloop even make sense for California?’, Quartz, 12 August 2013, http://qz.com/114463/does-the-hyperloop-even-make-sense-for-california/

[2] Flyvbjerg, Bent et al., ‘How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?’, Transport Reviews, vol.23, no.1, 2003, pp.71-88, http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/COSTFREQ4.pdf, p.85

The Hyperloop would be the cheapest mode of intercity transport possible. “Transporting 7.4million people each way and amortizing the cost of $6 billion over 20 years gives a ticket price of $20 for a one-way trip for the passenger version of Hyperloop.”[1] There are very few additional costs. Usually the main cost for transportation beyond the infrastructure is the energy but the Hyperloop produces more energy than it uses so would make a profit here. There would be additional maintenance costs and some minor staff costs but this is unlikely to add too much to the ticket price. The Hyperloop would therefore be very price competitive compared to the $100 and up for flights.

[1] Musk, Elon, ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, SpaceX, 12 August 2013, http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf p.56

While it seems reasonable that the cost will be low it is questionable that it will be quite as low as suggested. If the cost of construction rises – as it inevitably does – then because this is the basis for the pricing calculation the prices will surely go up. Musk is also forgetting all the extra costs that would be incurred such as the cost of airline style security measures.[1]

[1] Fernholz, Tim, ‘Does the Hyperloop even make sense for California?’, Quartz, 12 August 2013, http://qz.com/114463/does-the-hyperloop-even-make-sense-for-california/

The plan for the Hyperloop is sound technically but would it work politically? It is unlikely that the California high speed rail project will be scrapped simply because there is a new competitor on the block. The Hyperloop has the advantage of being cheap but it is cheap because it is being built in the middle of an existing highway, the interstate-5. Building the Hyperloop would therefore cause traffic chaos so there would not be much political support.[1] Build it elsewhere and land would need to be bought just as with proposals for high speed rail.

Maglevs are, like the Hyperloop, practically sound – one travels from Shanghai Airport into the center of the city[2] – but they have not been built. High speed trains, despite being slower, have been the preferred method for creating high speed transportation systems because they can easily connect into the existing rail infrastructure, a problem for both the Hyperloop and maglevs.

[1] Yarow, Jay, ’41 Years Ago, A Scientist Explained Why Elon Musk’s Hyperloop is Doomed’, Business Insider, 12 August 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musks-hyperloop-needs-a-strong-leader-2013-8

[2] Kidman, Alex, ‘Shanghai’s Maglev Train: Astonishingly Fast… and a little dull’, Gizmo, 12 September 2011, http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2011/09/shanghai%E2%80%99s-maglev-train-astonishingly-fast%E2%80%A6-and-a-little-dull/

That there will be some opposition to such a construction is inevitable. This however does not matter in a rational look at the advantages and disadvantages of such a transportation system. The politicians will ultimately decide on the same calculus as everyone else.

That the Hyperloop does not connect into infrastructure in the same way that the maglevs fail to is not a relevant argument to the United States where there are few rail services to connect into. Instead the possibility of having a Hyperloop that transport vehicles invites the prospect of connecting into the road network. A much more useful alternative in California.  

The plans for the Hyperloop provide that “The capacity would be 840 passengers per hour which more than sufficient to transport all of the 6 million passengers traveling between Los Angeles and San Francisco areas per year.” With only 28 people per capsule and a maximum of one capsule every 30 seconds there is not much room for expansion. It would seem surprising if this service only carried 6million passengers a year. The Taiwan High Speed Rail running between Taipei and Zuoying carried 41.6 million passengers in 2011[1] considering that Taiwan has a population of 23 million compared to the combined population of the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles metropolitan areas of 26million this does not seem an unreasonable comparison.[2] Even if we assume it will not be used at all for commuting and take the Eurostar as the point of comparison the Hyperloop still has only two thirds of the capacity it would need as Eurostar’s ridership is currently approaching 10million.[3]

[1] "Table 2-8 Passenger Traffic of High-Speed Rail". Monthly Statistics of Transportation & Communications. MOTC Department of Statistics.

[2] ‘Annual Estimates of the Population of Combined Statistical Areas’, Census.gov, 2012, http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2012/tables/CBSA-EST2012-02.csv

[3] ‘’Strong’ 2012 for Eurostar’, Global Rail News, 25 March 2013, http://www.globalrailnews.com/2013/03/25/strong-2012-for-eurostar/

It is very unlikely that the Hyperloop would quickly reach its capacity. Currently the number of people travelling from Los Angeles to San Francisco by plane only number 2.8million so there would clearly be plenty of room for expansion.[1]

[1] Amin, Saurabh, ‘Ride the Hyperloop before decade’s end?’, CNN, 13 August 2013, http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/13/opinion/amin-hyperloop-travel

The Hyperloop is not the first proposal to use tubes with low – or no – pressure in them. A very high speed train was proposed by Robert M. Salter in 1972. This as a train running in a vacuum would have gone substantially faster than anything that is currently being proposed travelling at around 3000 mph.[1]

Nor is this the first proposal for a pneumatic transport system; such trains were around in the 19^th century. They were first proposed as far back as 1812[2] and several short demonstration tracks were constructed such as the Beach Pneumatic Transit in New York which opened in 1870.[3] Such idea has not got off the ground in the past and there seems no reason why they should now when the basic technology is pretty much the same.

[1] Salter, Robert M., ‘The Very High Speed Transit System’, RAND Corporation, 1972, http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4874.html

[2] Medhurst, George, ‘Calculations and Remarks, Tending to Prove the Practicability, Effects and Advantages of a Plan for the Rapid Conveyance of Goods and Passengers: Upon an Iron Road Through a Tube of 30 Feet in Area, by the Power and Velocity of Air’, D.N. Shury, 1812, http://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&id=7AoGDIstdsEC&redir_esc=y

[3] Mihm, Stephen, ‘New York Had a Hyperloop First, Elon Musk’, Bloomberg, 14 August 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/new-york-had-a-hyperloop-first-elon-musk.html

That there have been similar suggestions before does not mean they are not commercialisable today. The very high speed trains are an inspiration for the Hyperloop but have serious disadvantages by comparison. Because of their vacuum tube the system would be stopped at the slightest leak.[1] They are also astonishingly expensive with the cost associated with construction estimated at as high as $1trillion, the hyperloop is much more economic and therefore practical.

[1] Musk, Elon, ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, SpaceX, 12 August 2013, http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf p.3

Elon Musk himself is unwilling to build his Hyperloop. He has stated “Maybe I would just do the beginning bit, create a subscale version that is operating and then hand it over to someone else. Ironing out the details at a subscale level is a tricky thing. I think I would probably end up doing that. It just won’t be immediate in the short term because I have to focus on Tesla and SpaceX execution.”[1] If the visionary for the project is having little to do with the project itself it seems unlikely that the proposal will come to anything. The Hyperloop being such a low priority for Musk is also likely to put off anyone else who might be interested in being involved.

[1] Elliott, Hannah, ‘Hyperloop Update: Elon Musk Will Start Developing It Himself’, Forbes, 12 August 2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelliott/2013/08/12/latest-update-elon-musk-will-start-the-hyperloop-himself/

Even if Elon is not currently willing to lead the project himself he is willing to both build a demonstration prototype to prove the technology and to invest money in the development himself.[1]

[1] Elliott, Hannah, ‘Hyperloop Update: Elon Musk Will Start Developing It Himself’, Forbes, 12 August 2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelliott/2013/08/12/latest-update-elon-musk-will-start-the-hyperloop-himself/