This House would, as Sao Tome, drop relations with Taiwan in favour of Mainland China

The Chinese civil war is over, and it is clear that it is the People’s Republic that has won. The 1992 consensus (though the term was coined later) between Taiwan and the PRC is that there is “one China, Different Interpretations” about who controls that China.[1] If there is only one China then it is clear which of the two China’s that one is. The PRC is 266 times larger than RoC, has 58 times the population, and its economy is 13.7 times bigger (by purchasing power parity).[2] States should be recognising the PRC as the “one China”.

[1] Kan, Shirley A., ‘China/Taiwan: Evolution of the “One China” Policy – Key Statements from Washington, Beijing, and Taipei’, Congressional Research Service, 26 August 2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30341.pdf, p.47

[2] All figures from The World Factbook, China and Taiwan pages https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tw.html

The PRC may be much more powerful, more populous, and bigger, but that does not mean that it is the legitimate government of China. The decision to recognise other countries is a matter for each government and should be based on their perception of the legitimacy of the two contenders and their own national interests not comparisons between the two competing sides.

Switching diplomatic recognition to China can be economically beneficial. A country that changes recognition is both likely to be given a reward for the change and then be much capable of engaging in joint economic projects with the PRC. Malawi for example cut its ties with Taiwan at the end of 2007. PRC offered a $6billion financial package for the defection.[1] Malawi has since benefited from large amounts of Chinese investment; Chinese companies have been involved in building vital infrastructure such as schools and roads, and even a new parliament building.[2] And trade between China and Malawi has been booming with growth of 25% in 2010 alone.[3] Even the Chinese believe that recognition occurs as a result of the economic incentive the Chinese envoy to Malawi having been quoted calling Malawi beggars.[4]

[1] Hsu, Jenny W., ‘Malawi, Taiwan end 42-year relations’, Taipei Times, 15 January 2008, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2008/01/15/2003397305

[2] Ngozo, Claire, ‘China puts its mark on Malawi’, theguardian.com, 7 May 2011, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2011/may/07/china-puts-mark-malawi-presence

[3] Jomo, Frank, ‘Malawi, China Trade to Grow 25% on Cotton, Daily Times Reports’, Bloomberg, 15 December 2010, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-15/malawi-china-trade-to-grow-25-on-cotton-daily-times-reports.html

[4] ‘Chinese Envoy's Remarks on Malawi Breed Resentment’, Voice of America, 1 November 2009, http://www.voanews.com/content/a-13-2008-03-28-voa36/403299.html

The PRC does not ignore countries that do not have diplomatic relations with it.  São Tomé is a case in point; PRC is opening a trade mission in the country despite not change in diplomatic recognition. This is in part because the Chinese are taking part in a $400million deep-water port development.[1] Not engaging in diplomatic relations with the PRC does not damage economic relations.

[1] ‘China to open mission with tiny Sao Tome, despite its Taiwan links’, Reuters, 14 November 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/14/us-china-saotome-idUSBRE9AD0CJ20131114

A small African country should not ignore one sixth of the world’s population. To recognise a tiny country of 23million over one of 1.3billion is being unjust to a huge portion of humanity. When there is such an imbalance in population it is clear that the democratic path is to recognise the side with the greater population. When all the states that have recognised Taiwan finally transfer recognition to the PRC Taiwan may finally recognise that it would be best off returning to China. By changing its recognition São Tomé and other small countries can do their bit to ensure peace in East Asia. 

While the PRC may have more people the rights of its people to consider themselves Chinese is clearly recognised the world over. It is Taiwan however whose rights are quashed by its lack of recognition; it can neither be recognised as China or exercise its right to self-determination as Taiwan as China has threatened invasion if it declares independence.[1] This would be unjust. Changing recognition to ensure ‘peace’ would not change the Taiwanese position so rendering the change meaningless.

[1] Hutzler, Charles, ‘China Threatens War Over Taiwan’, Washington Post, 21 February 2000, http://www.taiwandc.org/wp-2000-01.htm

The PRC is a member of the United Nations Security Council and as such is one of the key members of the UN. It is therefore difficult for countries to avoid dealing with it. The Pacific island of Tonga’s switched recognition because it feared the PRC would veto its membership of the UN.[1] São Tomé is already a member but that does not mean the PRC can’t cause problems in the international body; it clearly has the ability to scupper any initiative São Tomé wishes to pursue. Similarly in other international institutions while the PRC does not wield as much power as it does in the UN it still has considerably more influence than Taiwan; this includes over some organisations that provide aid such as the World Bank and IMF. São Tomé therefore must deal with the PRC, this being the case it should not let recognition get in the way.

[1] Fossen, Anthony Van, ‘The Struggle for Recognition: Diplomatic Competition between China and Taiwan in Oceania’, The Journal of Chinese Political Science, Col.12, No.2, 2007, http://www.researchgate.net/publication/29465883_The_Struggle_for_Recognition_Diplomatic_Competition_Between_China_and_Taiwan_in_Oceania, p.4

São Tomé is not a large country; it is unlikely to have interests that are threatened by the kind of resolutions the UNSC makes unless it is itself the subject. Moreover Beijing has not let the lack of recognition undermine relations with the remaining members; Beijing would not engage in actions that might create enmity that would then reduce the chances of a change in recognition.

The Chinese civil war is over, and it is clear that it is the People’s Republic that has won. The 1992 consensus (though the term was coined later) between Taiwan and the PRC is that there is “one China, Different Interpretations” about who controls that China.[1] If there is only one China then it is clear which of the two China’s that one is. The PRC is 266 times larger than RoC, has 58 times the population, and its economy is 13.7 times bigger (by purchasing power parity).[2] States should be recognising the PRC as the “one China”.

[1] Kan, Shirley A., ‘China/Taiwan: Evolution of the “One China” Policy – Key Statements from Washington, Beijing, and Taipei’, Congressional Research Service, 26 August 2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30341.pdf, p.47

[2] All figures from The World Factbook, China and Taiwan pages https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tw.html

The PRC may be much more powerful, more populous, and bigger, but that does not mean that it is the legitimate government of China. The decision to recognise other countries is a matter for each government and should be based on their perception of the legitimacy of the two contenders and their own national interests not comparisons between the two competing sides.

Switching diplomatic recognition to China can be economically beneficial. A country that changes recognition is both likely to be given a reward for the change and then be much capable of engaging in joint economic projects with the PRC. Malawi for example cut its ties with Taiwan at the end of 2007. PRC offered a $6billion financial package for the defection.[1] Malawi has since benefited from large amounts of Chinese investment; Chinese companies have been involved in building vital infrastructure such as schools and roads, and even a new parliament building.[2] And trade between China and Malawi has been booming with growth of 25% in 2010 alone.[3] Even the Chinese believe that recognition occurs as a result of the economic incentive the Chinese envoy to Malawi having been quoted calling Malawi beggars.[4]

[1] Hsu, Jenny W., ‘Malawi, Taiwan end 42-year relations’, Taipei Times, 15 January 2008, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2008/01/15/2003397305

[2] Ngozo, Claire, ‘China puts its mark on Malawi’, theguardian.com, 7 May 2011, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2011/may/07/china-puts-mark-malawi-presence

[3] Jomo, Frank, ‘Malawi, China Trade to Grow 25% on Cotton, Daily Times Reports’, Bloomberg, 15 December 2010, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-15/malawi-china-trade-to-grow-25-on-cotton-daily-times-reports.html

[4] ‘Chinese Envoy's Remarks on Malawi Breed Resentment’, Voice of America, 1 November 2009, http://www.voanews.com/content/a-13-2008-03-28-voa36/403299.html

The PRC does not ignore countries that do not have diplomatic relations with it.  São Tomé is a case in point; PRC is opening a trade mission in the country despite not change in diplomatic recognition. This is in part because the Chinese are taking part in a $400million deep-water port development.[1] Not engaging in diplomatic relations with the PRC does not damage economic relations.

[1] ‘China to open mission with tiny Sao Tome, despite its Taiwan links’, Reuters, 14 November 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/14/us-china-saotome-idUSBRE9AD0CJ20131114

A small African country should not ignore one sixth of the world’s population. To recognise a tiny country of 23million over one of 1.3billion is being unjust to a huge portion of humanity. When there is such an imbalance in population it is clear that the democratic path is to recognise the side with the greater population. When all the states that have recognised Taiwan finally transfer recognition to the PRC Taiwan may finally recognise that it would be best off returning to China. By changing its recognition São Tomé and other small countries can do their bit to ensure peace in East Asia. 

While the PRC may have more people the rights of its people to consider themselves Chinese is clearly recognised the world over. It is Taiwan however whose rights are quashed by its lack of recognition; it can neither be recognised as China or exercise its right to self-determination as Taiwan as China has threatened invasion if it declares independence.[1] This would be unjust. Changing recognition to ensure ‘peace’ would not change the Taiwanese position so rendering the change meaningless.

[1] Hutzler, Charles, ‘China Threatens War Over Taiwan’, Washington Post, 21 February 2000, http://www.taiwandc.org/wp-2000-01.htm

The PRC is a member of the United Nations Security Council and as such is one of the key members of the UN. It is therefore difficult for countries to avoid dealing with it. The Pacific island of Tonga’s switched recognition because it feared the PRC would veto its membership of the UN.[1] São Tomé is already a member but that does not mean the PRC can’t cause problems in the international body; it clearly has the ability to scupper any initiative São Tomé wishes to pursue. Similarly in other international institutions while the PRC does not wield as much power as it does in the UN it still has considerably more influence than Taiwan; this includes over some organisations that provide aid such as the World Bank and IMF. São Tomé therefore must deal with the PRC, this being the case it should not let recognition get in the way.

[1] Fossen, Anthony Van, ‘The Struggle for Recognition: Diplomatic Competition between China and Taiwan in Oceania’, The Journal of Chinese Political Science, Col.12, No.2, 2007, http://www.researchgate.net/publication/29465883_The_Struggle_for_Recognition_Diplomatic_Competition_Between_China_and_Taiwan_in_Oceania, p.4

São Tomé is not a large country; it is unlikely to have interests that are threatened by the kind of resolutions the UNSC makes unless it is itself the subject. Moreover Beijing has not let the lack of recognition undermine relations with the remaining members; Beijing would not engage in actions that might create enmity that would then reduce the chances of a change in recognition.

São Tomé is a multiparty democracy and has been since 1995 with free and fair elections.[1] The country is eleventh on the Ibrahim Index of African Governance.[2] It should therefore be supporting its fellow democracy; Taiwan. As a country that was a colony of Portugal for five hundred years having only secured independence in 1975 São Tomé should not wish to support a country that colonises others such as Tibet and Inner Mongolia, seeks to colonise Taiwan, and engages in aggressive actions to seize small islands in nearby seas.

[1] Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, ‘Sao Tome and Principe’, U.S. Department of State, 2012, http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm?year=2012&dlid=204158

[2] ‘The Ibrahim Index of African Governance’, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org/iiag/ accessed 10/2/2014

Democracy and history have little to do with recognition; PRC is recognised by many democracies around the world. The PRC is also on the side of former colonies having itself suffered a ‘century of humiliation’. The PRC is an observer of the Non Aligned Movement which contains almost all countries that have been colonies.[1]

[1] ‘The Non-Aligned Movement: Background Information’, Government Communications South Africa, 21 September 2001, http://www.nam.gov.za/background/background.htm

There is a truce between Taipei and Beijing on the issue of recognition. Neither is currently aiming to poach countries from the other. China has refused advances from El Salvador and Honduras that have said they wish to change their recognition to the PRC.[1] When Gambia terminated its ties with Taiwan Hong Lei a spokesman for the PRC Foreign Ministry said “We learned the relevant information from the foreign media. Before that, China was not in contact with The Gambia.”[2] The truce has been maintained and Gambia has been left essentially not recognising either China.[3]

[1] Cole, J Michael, ‘Is China and Taiwan’s Diplomatic Truce Over?’, The Diplomat, 18 November 2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/is-china-and-taiwans-diplomatic-truce-over/

[2] Enav, Peter, ‘Beijing was in dark about Gambia's broken ties with Taiwan: China official’, The China Post, 16 November 2013, http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/foreign-affairs/2013/11/16/393759/Beijing-was.htm

[3] Atkinson, Joel, ‘Gambia’s Break with Taiwan’, The Diplomat, 2 December 2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/gambias-break-with-taiwan/

That there is a truce at the moment does not mean that diplomatic relations with Taiwan should not be dropped. Taiwan is not China so Sao Tome should not be recognising Taiwan even if the PRC will not accept recognition at the moment. The PRC is also unlikely to keep the truce for long – any countries changing diplomatic recognition will be able to formally recognise the PRC as soon as the PRC finds it politically expedient to needle Taiwan.

There are benefits to being one of only twenty-two countries that recognise another country; you are lavished with attention. The President of the RoC visited São Tomé in January 2014,[1] he was last intending to visit only two years before but cancelled as President Manuel Pinto da Costa was overseas.[2] Visits also regularly go the other way; in a four month period from October 2010 São Tomé’s President, Minister of Finance, and Prime Minister all made separate trips to Taiwan.[3] The PRC being recognised by many more countries could never provide the same level of attention. As one of the poorest countries in the world without the question of recognition the PRC would have practically no interest in such a small African state.

[1] ‘Ma vows to strengthen ROC-Sao Tome relations’, Taiwan Today, 27 January 2014, http://www.taiwantoday.tw/ct.asp?xItem=213957&ctNode=420

[2] Hsiu-chuan, Shih, ‘Ma’s trip canceled due to scheduling conflict: Sao Tome’, Taipei Times, 5 April 2012, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/04/05/2003529559

[3] Martins, Vasco, ‘Aid for legitimacy: São Tomé and Principe hand in hand with Taiwan’, IPRIS Viewpoints, February 2011, http://www.ipris.org/php/download.php?fid=376

China is interested in African states; for decades many African states were seen as ideological partners, and now they are economic partners.[1] A President’s first overseas visit is always symbolic; President Xi’s firs visit was a four country tour taking in Russia and three African countries; Tanzania, South Africa, and Republic of Congo.[2] This shows how important Africa is to Beijing.

[1] Qichen, Qian, ‘Ten Episodes in China’s Diplomacy’, HarperCollins, 2006, Chapter 8 pp.191-230

[2] Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, ‘Africa: China's New President Concludes First Foreign Visit With Fruitful Results’, allAfrica, 1 April 2013, http://allafrica.com/stories/201304011181.html