This House believes Africa is really rising

Africa has recently experienced some of the most significant economic growth in the world. Amongst the top ten growing economies in the world are five African countries; The Gambia, Libya, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan[1]. The latter, South Sudan, witnessed GDP growth of 32% in 2013. Other economies in Africa are also doing exceptionally well, such as Ethiopia and Ghana. As ever, natural resources are a key export for these countries. Recent investments from China in exchange for Africa’s abundant natural resources have enabled many African countries to develop at a significantly faster rate, with trade between the continent and China increasing by $155 billion[2]. All of this has contributed to an average GDP growth of 4.8% in the past ten years. There is a rapidly expanding middle-class and it is predicted that by 2015 there will be over 100 million Africans living on $3,000 a year[3], showing an increasingly positive future for Africa.

[1] Maps of World, ‘Top Ten Countries with Fastest Growing Economies’, 2013

[2] The Economist, ‘Africa Rising’, 2013

[3] The Economist, ‘The hopeful continent’, 2011

Whilst there has been significant economic growth in many African countries, the majority of people are not seeing the benefits. Despite some success stories, such as Folorunsho Alakija becoming richer than Oprah[1], most Africans have not benefitted from economic growth. Afrobarometer conducted a survey of 34 African countries between 2011 and 2013[2]. They found that 53% found their economic situation to be either ‘fairly’ or ‘very bad’. Only one third of respondents believed that their national economy had improved in the past year. Statistics like these demonstrate that most are seeing no improvement in their lives despite current levels of national economic growth. The finite nature of many of the resources being sold by Africa means that the current levels of trade cannot be maintained forever, calling Africa’s future economic growth in to question.

[1] Gesinde, ‘How Alakija’s wealth grew’, 2013

[2] Hoffmeyr, ‘Africa Rising?’, 2013

Human development index (HDI) indicators are used to assess levels of life expectancy, education and income indices throughout the world. The majority of African states have seen an improvement in these scores since 2001, and are predicted to continue this trend.  Some African states, such Seychelles, Libya and Tunisia, are in the ‘High Human Development’ category and are positioned in the top 100 for HDI indicators, an improvement from 1990[1]. Life expectancy has increased by 10% on the continent and infant mortality has decreased as well, thanks to the greater availability of mosquito nets and the attention given to HIV/AIDS[2]. Education is seen as a cornerstone to growth as it allows the quicker attainment of the skills required for knowledge-intensive industries (such as agriculture and services), which will in turn lead to greater development[3]. The level of literacy in Africa has seen an increase in reports on human development from 2001[4] and 2011[5].  Finally, levels of poverty throughout Africa have generally decreased, including in notable countries such as Ghana and Zimbabwe.

[1] Watkins, ‘Human Development Report’, 2005, p.219

[2] The Economist, ‘Africa Rising’, 2013

[3] Haddad, ‘Education and Development’, 1990

[4] Fukuda-Parr, ‘Human Development Report’, 2011

[5] ‘United Nations Human Development statistical annex’, 2011, pp.159-161

Bucking this trend of increased HDI figures are the states who are currently witnessing, or have recently experienced, armed conflict. Africa has observed many well-known and lesser known conflicts which have damaged infrastructure and made it significantly harder for local populations to access key services such as schools and healthcare. Five of seven countries with the poorest nutritional scores are African and have recently emerged from armed conflict[1], they are also rated as some of the poorest countries in the world.

[1] Smith, ‘Africa is not rising’, 2013

Foreign investment into Africa has seen a large increase in recent years, which has enabled Africa to invest significant amounts of funding in to infrastructure, jobs creation and acquisition of technology[1]. In Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, foreign businesses account for a much larger percentage of employment than any domestic firm, hence increasing the standard of living for a greater number of people[2]. FDI has gone from $15 billion in 2002 to $37 billion in 2006 and $46 billion in 2012. The vast majority of this investment is based on extractive industries such as agriculture and raw resources. However, Africa has recently seen an increase in FDI for manufacturing and services as well[3]. Central Africa alone received $10 billion in 2012-3, due to an increased interest in the DRC’s copper-cobalt mines. The sources of this FDI vary, but China has become the major investor in the region, with investment rising from $11 billion to $166 billion in the past decade. China has helped build vast infrastructure projects in return for natural resources and food for its growing population.

[1] Moss, ‘Is Africa’s Skepticism of Foreign Capital Justified?’, 2004, p.2

[2] Moss, ‘Is Africa’s Skepticism of Foreign Capital Justified?’, 2004, p.19

[3] UNCTAD, ‘Foreign Direct Investment to Africa increases’, 2013

FDI increases have not been universal in Africa. Both Southern and Western Africa have witnessed decreased levels of FDI in 2012[1]. South Africa, whilst being well known for fluctuating levels of investment, saw a decrease of 24% in 2012 and Angola saw a decrease of $6.9 billion of FDI. Furthermore, companies have attempted to avoid tax whilst operating African countries, as the Barclays tax haven scheme has demonstrated[2]. FDI is also dependant on the condition of other economies. During the global recession, which began in 2008, there was a notable dip in investment and FDI has not fully recovered yet[3]. In addition to this, there is no guarantee that FDI will create employment. This suggests that the future of FDI, and the improvements that can be made to African infrastructure and employment levels as a result, are unstable to say the least.

[1] UNCTAD, ‘Foreign Direct Investment to Africa increases’, 2013

[2] Provost, ‘Row as Barclays promotes tax havens as 'gateway for investment' in Africa’, 2013

[3] The Economist, ‘Africa Rising’, 2013

Proponents of this view claim that the traditional image of ‘Dark Africa’ is becoming outdated in the light of greater access to technology. Due to poor infrastructure, mobile communications have had a transformative impact on African life. In the past decade there has been a notable increase in mobile phone ownership, with the trend set to continue. There are over 600 million mobile phone users in Africa, which is more than in North America and Europe[1]. Mobile phones allow the use of services such as agro-info and mobile banking to further their businesses. It is thought that by 2017, 30% of households will have a television in their house. Household technologies becoming more available have gone hand in hand with the development of more sophisticated farming and industrial techniques. A recent Pan-African project designed at improving legume technology and enrich low-nitrogen soils has made it possible for farmers to increase their yields and has reached 250,000 smallholder farmers so far[2]. 

[1] The Economist, ‘The hopeful continent’, 2011

[2] Abuje, ‘Putting biological nitrogen fixation to work for smallholder farmers’, 2011

Internet use is still very low in Africa, only 16% regularly access the internet. Some areas lag far more than others as well, highlighting regional disparity and the role that has on the economy. While East Africa benefits from large-scale mobile phone ownership, a money transfer system M-Pesa has transactions of $1 billion per month, other areas such as West Africa have failed to do the same[1]. This has led to a potential loss of business for the region’s population who require communications for their farms and businesses.

[1] Felix, ‘Insight’, 2013

Africa has recently experienced some of the most significant economic growth in the world. Amongst the top ten growing economies in the world are five African countries; The Gambia, Libya, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan[1]. The latter, South Sudan, witnessed GDP growth of 32% in 2013. Other economies in Africa are also doing exceptionally well, such as Ethiopia and Ghana. As ever, natural resources are a key export for these countries. Recent investments from China in exchange for Africa’s abundant natural resources have enabled many African countries to develop at a significantly faster rate, with trade between the continent and China increasing by $155 billion[2]. All of this has contributed to an average GDP growth of 4.8% in the past ten years. There is a rapidly expanding middle-class and it is predicted that by 2015 there will be over 100 million Africans living on $3,000 a year[3], showing an increasingly positive future for Africa.

[1] Maps of World, ‘Top Ten Countries with Fastest Growing Economies’, 2013

[2] The Economist, ‘Africa Rising’, 2013

[3] The Economist, ‘The hopeful continent’, 2011

Whilst there has been significant economic growth in many African countries, the majority of people are not seeing the benefits. Despite some success stories, such as Folorunsho Alakija becoming richer than Oprah[1], most Africans have not benefitted from economic growth. Afrobarometer conducted a survey of 34 African countries between 2011 and 2013[2]. They found that 53% found their economic situation to be either ‘fairly’ or ‘very bad’. Only one third of respondents believed that their national economy had improved in the past year. Statistics like these demonstrate that most are seeing no improvement in their lives despite current levels of national economic growth. The finite nature of many of the resources being sold by Africa means that the current levels of trade cannot be maintained forever, calling Africa’s future economic growth in to question.

[1] Gesinde, ‘How Alakija’s wealth grew’, 2013

[2] Hoffmeyr, ‘Africa Rising?’, 2013

Human development index (HDI) indicators are used to assess levels of life expectancy, education and income indices throughout the world. The majority of African states have seen an improvement in these scores since 2001, and are predicted to continue this trend.  Some African states, such Seychelles, Libya and Tunisia, are in the ‘High Human Development’ category and are positioned in the top 100 for HDI indicators, an improvement from 1990[1]. Life expectancy has increased by 10% on the continent and infant mortality has decreased as well, thanks to the greater availability of mosquito nets and the attention given to HIV/AIDS[2]. Education is seen as a cornerstone to growth as it allows the quicker attainment of the skills required for knowledge-intensive industries (such as agriculture and services), which will in turn lead to greater development[3]. The level of literacy in Africa has seen an increase in reports on human development from 2001[4] and 2011[5].  Finally, levels of poverty throughout Africa have generally decreased, including in notable countries such as Ghana and Zimbabwe.

[1] Watkins, ‘Human Development Report’, 2005, p.219

[2] The Economist, ‘Africa Rising’, 2013

[3] Haddad, ‘Education and Development’, 1990

[4] Fukuda-Parr, ‘Human Development Report’, 2011

[5] ‘United Nations Human Development statistical annex’, 2011, pp.159-161

Bucking this trend of increased HDI figures are the states who are currently witnessing, or have recently experienced, armed conflict. Africa has observed many well-known and lesser known conflicts which have damaged infrastructure and made it significantly harder for local populations to access key services such as schools and healthcare. Five of seven countries with the poorest nutritional scores are African and have recently emerged from armed conflict[1], they are also rated as some of the poorest countries in the world.

[1] Smith, ‘Africa is not rising’, 2013

Foreign investment into Africa has seen a large increase in recent years, which has enabled Africa to invest significant amounts of funding in to infrastructure, jobs creation and acquisition of technology[1]. In Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, foreign businesses account for a much larger percentage of employment than any domestic firm, hence increasing the standard of living for a greater number of people[2]. FDI has gone from $15 billion in 2002 to $37 billion in 2006 and $46 billion in 2012. The vast majority of this investment is based on extractive industries such as agriculture and raw resources. However, Africa has recently seen an increase in FDI for manufacturing and services as well[3]. Central Africa alone received $10 billion in 2012-3, due to an increased interest in the DRC’s copper-cobalt mines. The sources of this FDI vary, but China has become the major investor in the region, with investment rising from $11 billion to $166 billion in the past decade. China has helped build vast infrastructure projects in return for natural resources and food for its growing population.

[1] Moss, ‘Is Africa’s Skepticism of Foreign Capital Justified?’, 2004, p.2

[2] Moss, ‘Is Africa’s Skepticism of Foreign Capital Justified?’, 2004, p.19

[3] UNCTAD, ‘Foreign Direct Investment to Africa increases’, 2013

FDI increases have not been universal in Africa. Both Southern and Western Africa have witnessed decreased levels of FDI in 2012[1]. South Africa, whilst being well known for fluctuating levels of investment, saw a decrease of 24% in 2012 and Angola saw a decrease of $6.9 billion of FDI. Furthermore, companies have attempted to avoid tax whilst operating African countries, as the Barclays tax haven scheme has demonstrated[2]. FDI is also dependant on the condition of other economies. During the global recession, which began in 2008, there was a notable dip in investment and FDI has not fully recovered yet[3]. In addition to this, there is no guarantee that FDI will create employment. This suggests that the future of FDI, and the improvements that can be made to African infrastructure and employment levels as a result, are unstable to say the least.

[1] UNCTAD, ‘Foreign Direct Investment to Africa increases’, 2013

[2] Provost, ‘Row as Barclays promotes tax havens as 'gateway for investment' in Africa’, 2013

[3] The Economist, ‘Africa Rising’, 2013

Proponents of this view claim that the traditional image of ‘Dark Africa’ is becoming outdated in the light of greater access to technology. Due to poor infrastructure, mobile communications have had a transformative impact on African life. In the past decade there has been a notable increase in mobile phone ownership, with the trend set to continue. There are over 600 million mobile phone users in Africa, which is more than in North America and Europe[1]. Mobile phones allow the use of services such as agro-info and mobile banking to further their businesses. It is thought that by 2017, 30% of households will have a television in their house. Household technologies becoming more available have gone hand in hand with the development of more sophisticated farming and industrial techniques. A recent Pan-African project designed at improving legume technology and enrich low-nitrogen soils has made it possible for farmers to increase their yields and has reached 250,000 smallholder farmers so far[2]. 

[1] The Economist, ‘The hopeful continent’, 2011

[2] Abuje, ‘Putting biological nitrogen fixation to work for smallholder farmers’, 2011

Internet use is still very low in Africa, only 16% regularly access the internet. Some areas lag far more than others as well, highlighting regional disparity and the role that has on the economy. While East Africa benefits from large-scale mobile phone ownership, a money transfer system M-Pesa has transactions of $1 billion per month, other areas such as West Africa have failed to do the same[1]. This has led to a potential loss of business for the region’s population who require communications for their farms and businesses.

[1] Felix, ‘Insight’, 2013

While the majority of African governments have made efforts to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), the deadlines for achieving them are fast approaching with little sign of complete success. The MDGs were established in 2000, and laid out a set of criteria which each country should aspire to in order to become developed. These development goals are essential for Africa to be able to effectively grow. The United Nations Development Programme readily recognises that the eradication of hunger, reduction of child mortality, improvement of maternal health and ensuring environmental sustainability are all off track in Africa[1]. Observing the causes of this failure, the inequality existing in Africa is blamed as a fundamental roadblock.

[1] UNDP, ‘MDG Progress Reports – Africa’, 2013

Fifteen out of the twenty countries which have made the most progress towards completing the MDGs are African states. According the UNDP the goals of universal education, gender equality and the empowerment of women, combat HIV/AIDS, TB malaria and other diseases and Global partnership are on track to being completed. While the other goals have not been completed, there is hope that they will be completed in time. The fact that the majority of states have made at least some improvement on these goals is a positive in itself. They have attempted to improve the quality of their populations’ lives, which has a positive impact upon their economies. 

While there is a lot of contention over government type, democracy is seen as an aspiration in Western eyes, and African dictators have a history of running brutal and corrupt regimes. In Africa the majority of states are still dictatorships. Only 25 of the 55 states are democratic, whilst the rest are authoritarian or hybrid regimes. These dictators are commonly associated with poor governance, which in turn can affect economic growth. Recent pictures of Robert Mugabe and his team of ministers asleep at an African-Arab economic summit demonstrate how little enthusiasm some of these leaders have for the progress of their country[1].

[1] Moyo, ‘Mugabe and his ministers sleep through economic summit’, 2013

The rise in the number of democracies, and the Arab Spring movement in Northern Africa, demonstrates an increasing dedication to democracy. At the end of the cold war there were only three democracies; the large number of regime changes show that African governments are becoming more accountable to the people that they are supposed to represent. Arguably, one of the main goals of the Arab Spring was to seek democracy and a greater say in politics. This led to regime changes in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia with protests occurring in other states as well. In 2012 Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi, announced laws that would make him free from judicial review[1]. The resulting protests saw him removed from power, demonstrating the continued desire for democracy in Northern Africa.

[1] Egypt Independent, ‘Morsy issues new constitutional declaration’, 2012

A major road block to development and economic growth in Africa is the prevalence of natural disasters. These disasters commonly affect the poorest and most vulnerable in society, as they are often the ones living in the ‘most exposed areas’, thus preventing development[1]. In Somalia, for example, the 2013 cyclone left tens of thousands homeless in an already impoverished area, worsening their economic situation[2]. Dr Tom Mitchell from the Overseas Development Institute has claimed that economic growth cannot occur until disaster risk management becomes central to social and economic policy[3].  Disaster management could cost too much however. In November 2013, a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report demonstrated that 2070 a total $350 billion per annum would be required to deal with the threats presented by clime change such as increased Arid areas and higher risks of flooding[4]. 

[1] Decapua, ‘Natural Disasters Worsen Poverty’, 2013

[2] Migiro, ‘Somalia Reels From Cyclone, Floods and Hunger – ICRC’, 2013

[3] Decapua, ‘Natural Disasters Worsen Poverty’, 2013

[4] Rowling, ‘Africa Faces Sharp Rise in Climate Adaption Costs – Unep’, 2013

In recent years there has been a large amount of aid provided to Africa for the express purpose of climate change adaption, demonstrating a growing awareness to this issue. The UNEP claimed that between 2010 and 2011 it provided several hundred million dollars each year, with an unknown amount coming from other development projects, directed towards climate change adaption[1]. While this does not cover future costs, it is a start.

[1] Rowling, ‘Africa Faces Sharp Rise in Climate Adaption Costs – Unep’, 2013

Another major barrier to economic development in Africa is the regional instability caused by the 23 wars and episodes of civil unrest. War is naturally a costly affair; the 2001 conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea cost the former $2.9 billion with extensive damage to its economic and social infrastructure. A BBC report noted that extra funding had to be diverted away from development in order to meet the rising demands of the war[1]. What makes Africa’s situation far worse is the tendency of many armed groups to become bandits rather than armies with political objectives[2]. The inclination for these armed groups to forsake any ideal of governing in favour of banditry and rape makes them harder to negotiate as ‘legitimate grievances in these failed or failing African states deteriorate into rapacious, profit-orientated bloodshed’[3]. The constant disruption to the lives of civilians in these 23 wars has led to poor levels of human development, which has further destabilised the region.

[1] Bhalla, ‘War ‘devastated’ Ethiopian economy’, 2001

[2] Gettleman, ‘Africa’s Forever Wars’, 2010

[3] Gettleman, ‘Africa’s Forever Wars’, 2010

Despite numerous ongoing conflicts on the continent, there have been efforts to create an end to war. The number of conflicts in Africa has decreased since its peak in the early 1990s[1], and there is increased optimism with the resolution of the M23 rebellion in DR Congo which will hopefully bring Africa’s most devastating war to an end. There is a desire by many African states to end war in the region, as illustrated by the African Union’s (AU) objective to end war on the continent by 2020[2]. Amongst other objectives, the AU has stated that it wished to ‘address the root causes of conflicts including economic and social disparities’[3]. African peacekeeping forces have also become more prominent, with large contingents in Mali and Somalia. As of December 2013, the AU has begun preparations to send a peacekeeping force to the Central African Republic[4], suggesting the AU will be proactive in preventing conflict on the Continent in the future.     

[1] Straus, ‘Africa is becoming more peaceful’, 2013

[2] African Union, ‘50^th Anniversary Solemn Declaration’, 2013

[3] African Union, ‘50^th Anniversary Solemn Declaration’, 2013

[4] Ndukong, ‘Central Africa’, 2013